Young Voters Discontent: The Impact of Yoon Seok-yeol's Presidency

On December 10, 2024, students from Dankook University held a public declaration calling for the resignation of President Yoon Seok-yeol at the university's Jukjeon campus in Yongin, Gyeonggi Province. Many young voters, particularly men in their 20s and 30s, are expressing their disillusionment with the current political climate, feeling that Yoon's presidency has inadvertently paved the way for Lee Jae-myung to potentially become president. A 25-year-old office worker, who identifies as a supporter of the People Power Party, remarked, "Honestly, it seems like Yoon Seok-yeol is making it possible for Lee Jae-myung to become president." Another party member, a 30-year-old man, shared his feelings of betrayal by President Yoon.

The declaration of a state of emergency, reminiscent of historical events, has shocked the younger generation, including those who previously supported Yoon during his election campaign. While some factions support the emergency measures, the majority of young men oppose them. A 25-year-old man, who has consistently voted for conservative parties, stated, "Regardless of the reasons, a state of emergency is wrong, and I believe impeachment is justified."

The traditional conservative base, particularly the 60-70 age group, remains steadfast, alongside the 40-50 age group that strongly supports Lee Jae-myung and the Democratic Party. As the presidential race heats up, the 2030 generation, especially young men, is seen as a crucial demographic that must be engaged for electoral success.

Previously, impeachment rallies, dubbed 'cheering stick gatherings,' were predominantly led by women in their 20s and 30s, who actively called for Yoon's impeachment. In contrast, participation from young men in pro-impeachment rallies has been relatively low, with many observing the situation from a distance. Politically, they align more with the centrist views. In the last election, both centrist voters and young men supported Yoon as part of a conservative coalition.

The notion of a 'conservative young male' is no longer a mere hypothesis but a reality, as evidenced by voting patterns in recent elections. The exit polls from the 2022 presidential election revealed a stark gender divide in support for candidates, with Yoon receiving 58.7% of the votes from young men, while Lee garnered 58% from young women. This trend was anticipated, as Yoon's campaign included promises to abolish the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family, and his party leader, Lee Jun-seok, focused on appealing to young men.

In the 2024 general elections, despite a significant defeat for conservative parties, the consolidation of support among young men remained strong. The Democratic Party won decisively, but among men in their 20s, the People Power Party was still the leading choice with 47.9% support, narrowly ahead of the Democratic Party at 46.4%. This trend was also evident among men in their 30s, where the People Power Party received 48.3% of the votes.

However, the emergence of the Reform Party, led by Lee Jun-seok, has introduced new dynamics. Young men have shown strong support for Lee, leading to a fragmentation of conservative votes. A report from the National Assembly's Legislative Research Service indicated that Lee's departure from the People Power Party weakened its support base.

Some analysts argue that young men do not align ideologically. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong noted, "The current young men are conservative because they dislike the Moon Jae-in administration, but after the impeachment process of Yoon, they may consider other options."

The sentiment of 'anti-Lee Jae-myung' is particularly pronounced among young men, with many expressing disappointment over the potential rise of Lee as president. A 26-year-old office worker lamented, "It seems like Lee Jae-myung, who shouldn't be president, will end up in that position. I can't stop it, but I will vote for a conservative party."

This 'anti-Lee' and 'anti-Democratic Party' sentiment is deeply ingrained among many young men, who have rejected the policies of the Moon administration, particularly regarding gender issues and inter-Korean relations. The 2019 'Cho Kuk incident' further fueled their anger over perceived injustices, leading them to lean towards conservative politics.

Many young men interviewed expressed regret over Yoon's impeachment, with one 25-year-old stating, "Honestly, it's very unfortunate. I thought Yoon shouldn't have been impeached, but I accept the Constitutional Court's ruling and hope the next election goes well." Another young man, who opposed the state of emergency, admitted he wished for the impeachment to be dismissed but felt a greater resentment towards the Democratic Party.

The events surrounding the state of emergency and Yoon's impeachment have left many young conservatives confused and disappointed, unsure of whom to support moving forward. This uncertainty has led to skepticism about potential candidates within the conservative camp, with many feeling that there are no clear options. A 28-year-old man from Daejeon expressed, "I want to vote for a People Power Party candidate, but I don't see anyone worth voting for. I will watch the primaries, but I feel stuck."

As the election approaches, young conservatives face three main choices: support a candidate after the People Power Party primaries, back Lee Jun-seok, or abstain from voting altogether. Many are inclined to observe the primaries before making a decision. The People Power Party has begun preparations for its internal primaries, maintaining a 50-50 split between party member votes and public opinion polls.

A member of the party's youth organization acknowledged that simply relying on 'anti-Lee' sentiment is insufficient, emphasizing the need for a candidate who can unify the youth faction. The importance of appealing to centrist young voters is also highlighted, as they seek a candidate who can assure them of a secure future.

The choice of the People Power Party's candidate will significantly influence young men's voting behavior. Political analysts agree that whether or not they support the state of emergency will be a determining factor in their decisions. If a candidate like former Minister Kim Moon-soo is selected, it could lead to a shift in support towards Lee Jun-seok among disillusioned young men.

The second option for young conservatives is to support Lee Jun-seok's Reform Party. Some express dissatisfaction with the framing of young men as 'privileged' and hope for a different choice this time. However, if their preferred candidate is eliminated during the primaries, their dilemma will deepen.

Lastly, some young men may choose to abstain from voting altogether, reflecting their disappointment with the conservative camp. However, the strong 'anti-Lee' sentiment may prevent many from taking this route.