The Countdown to Catastrophe: A Nuclear Scenario Explored

In a gripping narrative, the book by Annie Jacobsen, translated by 강동혁, delves into a chilling hypothetical scenario where the fate of humanity hangs in the balance. The story unfolds in just 24 minutes, as the U.S. President must make critical decisions under the 'launch on warning' policy, a nuclear strategy developed during the Cold War. This policy allows the President to authorize a nuclear strike without seeking permission from anyone else upon detecting signs of a nuclear attack.

The narrative begins with North Korea launching a 1-megaton thermonuclear warhead aboard a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) aimed at Washington, D.C. The missile's destructive power is approximately 60 times greater than that of the Hiroshima bomb. Within 24 minutes, the missile impacts the U.S. mainland, prompting the President to decide on a counterstrike within a mere 6 minutes.

As the U.S. retaliates with its own nuclear missiles, Russia misinterprets the attack as a threat against itself, leading to the launch of over 1,000 nuclear missiles targeting the U.S. and Europe. Meanwhile, South Korea faces a devastating assault from North Korean short-range rockets carrying 240 tons of sarin gas, resulting in casualties ranging from 650,000 to 2.5 million.

This scenario illustrates how North Korea's aggressive actions could trigger an immediate U.S. response, escalating into a potential Third World War. If events unfold as described, humanity could face extinction in less than an hour. Richard Garwin, a designer of U.S. thermonuclear weapons, warns in an interview that the presence of just one nihilistic individual with nuclear capabilities could ignite a conflict with no victors. The timeline for North Korea's missile launch, the U.S. counteraction, and Russia's response is alarmingly brief—just 43 minutes. This stark reality leaves little time to reflect on 300,000 years of human history.