Lee Jun-seok's Reform Party Presidential Bid: A Mixed Outcome

On June 3, Lee Jun-seok, the presidential candidate for the Reform Party, greeted supporters at the election counting center set up in the National Assembly's committee room. Political analyst Park Sang-byeong from Inha University commented on Lee's election results, stating, "While the vote count isn't bad, he hasn't gained anything substantial." He noted that Lee's high unlikability and the controversy surrounding his comments during the debates were vividly displayed during the campaign.

Lee's controversial 'chopstick remark' aimed at Lee Jae-myung's son is likely what Park was referring to. A member of Lee's campaign team expressed disappointment to Weekly Chosun, saying, "We thought if we surpassed 15% before the announcement ban, we could frame it as a contest between Lee Jae-myung and Lee Jun-seok. However, that remark during the third debate caused us to lose momentum." At a time when polls showed support peaking at 14%, they had to shift from an offensive strategy to a defensive one.

The incident highlighted both Lee's strengths and weaknesses, as he garnered nearly 3 million votes through his personal appeal, but it also underscored the risks he carries as a candidate.

One campaign official confirmed that Lee had prepared materials regarding Lee Jae-myung's son but added, "No one expected him to present it in that manner." Another campaign member noted that opinions within the team were divided on how to respond to the backlash. Older members viewed it as a significant setback that warranted an apology, while younger leaders saw it as an opportunity for a bold counterattack. It appears they lacked access to the court documents related to the allegations against Lee Jae-myung's son, which turned their approach into a reactive rather than a comprehensive offensive.

As noted by campaign insiders, the 'chopstick remark' ultimately became a decisive blow to Lee Jun-seok's upward trajectory. Given that his team had prepared for the election for an extended period, this misstep is a source of regret. Lee was among the first to announce his candidacy for the early presidential election, making his intentions clear as early as last December and January during a state of emergency. While the two major parties delayed their primaries until after the impeachment of former President Yoon Seok-yeol, the Reform Party nominated Lee as its candidate on March 18. The People Power Party selected its candidate on May 3, and the failed unification with Han Duck-soo occurred on May 11, giving the Reform Party a nearly two-month head start.

Lee received 8.34% of the votes, totaling 2,917,523. This result is nuanced; for a first-time candidate at 40 years old not affiliated with the two major parties, it is a significant achievement. However, falling short of the anticipated 10% could be a considerable setback for Lee and the Reform Party, especially as they seek to establish themselves as a key player in the conservative political landscape and prepare for next year's local elections.

Support from the 2030 demographic in Seoul was particularly strong. Lee's highest support came from Seoul (9.94%), with notable figures in Sejong (9.89%) and Daejeon (9.76%). Detailed analysis of voting precincts revealed that he performed well in areas with younger populations.

The precinct with the highest support for Lee was Seonong-dong in Yongin, Gyeonggi Province, where he garnered 30.63% of the votes, likely due to the proximity of Samsung Electronics and Kyung Hee University. He also received 29.60% in Wolloong-myeon, Paju, where LG Display and Doowon Technical University are located. In other university-heavy areas like Anam-dong (Korea University), Sinchon-dong (Yonsei University), and Whigyeong-dong (Kyung Hee University), Lee received around 20% support. High votes were also recorded in the Sillim-dong area of Gwanak-gu, Seoul, known for its study villages, and in Geumho-dong, Gwangyang, Jeollanam-do, where POSCO is located.

Lee's performance confirmed his status as a viable alternative for the 2030 generation residing in the metropolitan area. Exit polls from major broadcasters (KBS, MBC, SBS) on election day indicated that Lee received 24.3% support from voters under 20 and 17.7% from those in their 30s. This support isn't limited to young men; young women also showed higher average support than progressive candidate Kwon Young-guk (5.9%, 1.6%). During the counting process, Lee's support rose from the low 7% range to over 8% as absentee ballots were counted, likely reflecting the high mobility of younger voters.

The election also positively impacted the party's membership. The Reform Party, having faced its second nationwide election since last year's general election, received three times more votes than in the previous election (3.61%, 1,025,775 votes). Online membership surged from around 60,000 in March to 118,613 by June 4. The campaign's low expenditure and profitable outcome are also seen as healthy indicators. Lee's campaign costs were approximately 4 billion won, and with election subsidies and donations, they covered their expenses comfortably.

Political analyst Lee Jong-hoon remarked, "If we consider the starting point of the early election, Lee was polling at barely over 2%. Achieving 8.34% is quite an accomplishment." He also noted that many voters chose Kim Moon-soo due to strategic voting, emphasizing that Lee's support was not merely a reflection of protest votes. The challenge now lies ahead; this election may represent a peak for Lee.

The uncertainty remains regarding Lee's role in the upcoming conservative political realignment. Political analyst Kim Sang-il's outlook is not optimistic. "Lee's failure to surpass 10% means he has become a dependent variable in the conservative restructuring rather than an independent one. His support reflects dissatisfaction with both major parties rather than a solid conservative base. Had he crossed the 10% threshold, many would have considered him a central figure in political realignment. Lee must wait for the results of the People Power Party leadership election. If the pro-Yoon faction takes control, he may maintain his position as an alternative force and possibly even align with former leader Han Dong-hoon."

There are calls for a reassessment of Lee's leadership. Another member of the Reform Party stated, "We need someone to play the role of a red team, especially in preparing for debates. Those following the broadcasters lacked policy expertise, and only senior campaign members were involved, limiting the candidate's support. We should have prioritized capable individuals over those we trust. Kim Sang-il added, "If Lee can respect the public while moderating his arrogance and impatience, he may find ample opportunities in the future. He has left a significant narrative in this election."