Lee Jun-seok's Reform Party Election Results: Analysis and Implications

On June 3, Lee Jun-seok, the presidential candidate for the Reform Party, greeted supporters at the election counting center set up in the National Assembly's committee room. Political analyst Park Sang-byeong from Inha University commented on Lee's election results, stating, "While the vote count isn't bad, he gained little in practical terms," and highlighted how Lee's high unlikability and the controversy surrounding his comments were vividly displayed during the campaign.

Lee's controversial 'chopstick remark' aimed at Lee Jae-myung's son is likely what Park was referring to. A member of Lee's campaign team expressed disappointment to Weekly Chosun, saying, "We believed that if we surpassed 15% before the public announcement ban, we could frame the election as a contest between Lee Jae-myung and Lee Jun-seok. However, that remark during the third debate disrupted our momentum, forcing us to switch from offense to defense at a time when polls showed we could reach 14%." This incident starkly illustrated both Lee's strengths and weaknesses, as he garnered nearly 3 million votes through his personal appeal, but also revealed the risks he carried.

Another campaign official confirmed that while Lee had prepared materials regarding Lee Jae-myung's son, no one anticipated the manner in which he would present that information. Following the remark, there was a division of opinion within the campaign on how to respond. Older campaign members viewed it as a significant setback that warranted an apology, while younger leaders saw it as an opportunity for a bold counterattack. It appears they lacked access to the court documents related to the allegations against Lee Jae-myung's son, resulting in a reactive rather than a comprehensive offensive strategy, which ultimately proved detrimental.

As noted by campaign insiders, the so-called 'chopstick remark' became a decisive blow that halted Lee Jun-seok's upward trajectory. Given that his team had prepared for the election for an extended period compared to other candidates, this was a significant disappointment. Lee was among the first to announce his candidacy for the early presidential election, making his intentions clear in late 2022 and early 2023 during a state of emergency. While the two major parties delayed their primaries until the impeachment of former President Yoon Seok-yeol was resolved, the Reform Party nominated Lee as its candidate on March 18. The People Power Party selected its candidate on May 3, and the failed unification with Han Duck-soo occurred on May 11. Thus, the Reform Party had nearly two months of head start over the People Power Party, attempting to overcome the challenges of being a small party with only three seats.

Lee received 8.34% of the votes, totaling 2,917,523. This result is nuanced; for a first-time candidate not affiliated with the two major parties, it is a commendable achievement. However, falling short of the anticipated 10% could have significant repercussions. The ambiguous results raise questions about whether Lee and the Reform Party can play a pivotal role in future conservative political realignments, especially with the upcoming local elections.

Support from the 2030 demographic in Seoul was notably strong. The election results revealed that Lee's highest support came from Seoul (9.94%), with Sejong (9.89%) and Daejeon (9.76%) also exceeding the average. A detailed analysis of voting precincts showed that he performed particularly well in areas with younger populations.

The precinct where Lee garnered the most votes was Seongnam's Seo-nong-dong, with 30.63%, likely due to the proximity of Samsung Electronics and Kyung Hee University, attracting votes from students and young professionals. He also received 29.60% in Paju's Wolong-myeon, home to LG Display and Dongwon University. Other areas with high student populations, such as Anam-dong (Korea University), Sinchon-dong (Yonsei University), and Whigyeong-dong (Kyung Hee University), saw Lee receiving around 20% support.

Lee's appeal to the 2030 generation in the metropolitan area has been confirmed. According to exit polls from the three major broadcasters (KBS, MBC, SBS) on election day, Lee received 24.3% support from voters under 20 and 17.7% from those in their 30s. This support is not limited to young men; young women also showed higher average support than progressive candidate Kwon Young-guk (5.9%, 1.6%). During the counting process, Lee's support rose from the low 7% range to over 8% as absentee ballots were counted, likely reflecting the high mobility of younger voters.

The election also positively impacted the party's membership. The Reform Party, having participated in its second nationwide election since last year's general election, received three times more votes than in the previous election (3.61%, 1,025,775 votes). The number of online party members surged from around 60,000 in March to 118,613 by June 4. The relatively low campaign expenditure of approximately 4 billion won, coupled with a surplus, is also seen as a healthy aspect of the campaign. Lee's campaign costs were covered by election subsidies and donations, leaving a surplus.

Political analyst Lee Jong-hoon remarked, "If we consider the starting point of the early presidential election, Lee was polling at barely over 2%. Achieving 8.34% is quite an accomplishment." He also noted that many voters chose Kim Moon-soo due to strategic voting, emphasizing that Lee's support was not merely a reflection of protest votes. The challenge now lies ahead; this election may represent a peak for Lee.

The uncertainty remains regarding Lee's role in the upcoming conservative political realignment. Political analyst Kim Sang-il's outlook is not optimistic. "Lee's failure to surpass 10% means he has become a dependent variable rather than an independent one in the conservative restructuring. His support reflects a dislike for candidates from both major parties. Had he crossed the 10% threshold, many would have considered him a central figure in political realignment discussions. Lee must wait for the results of the People Power Party's leadership election. If the pro-Yoon faction takes control, he may maintain his position as an alternative force and possibly even align with former leader Han Dong-hoon."

There are calls for a reassessment of Lee's leadership. Another member of the Reform Party stated, "We need someone to play the role of a red team, especially during the debate preparation process. Those following the broadcasters lacked policy expertise, and the senior campaign members were limited, leaving the candidate without substantial support. We should have prioritized capable individuals over those we trust. Kim Sang-il added, "If Lee can respect the public while moderating his arrogance and impatience, he may find ample opportunities in the future, as he has left a significant narrative in this election."